Trouble in the East China Sea

The upcoming presidential election has seen the revival of our country’s politicians’ favorite past time: China-bashing. A reliable way to secure votes, we have seen both parties decry the fast growing economy, accusing them of “cheating” in trade with the United States, denouncing their greedy communist leaders of exploiting the people and violating human right’s laws. In some ways, politicians are trying to paint it like the giant red specter that hung over the heads of Americans in the Cold War. This fear of China is not just unique to the atmosphere surrounding our elections though. These past few months have seen two of our biggest allies (and trading partners), China and Japan, go head to head over a few rocks in the sea.

 

Since the Japanese Constitution was rewritten and became pacifist after World War 2, Japanese-Chinese relations had cooled off quite a bit. Japan apologized to the world for the atrocities committed by its people during World War 2 (though the depth of apology is still a matter of contention between Japan and South Korea), and China’s economy boomed, and became Japan’s largest trading partner. With China’s exponential expansion has come its incredible demand for natural resources and naval control. In recent years, China has snapped up a huge portion of natural resource exports, fueling such economies as Brazil, Russia, and Australia. This is where the sparse outcrop of rock that the Chinese call the Diaoyus  (literally meaning “fishing islands) and the Japanese call the Senkakus (with the main island also meaning “fishing island”).

 

After Japan became under US occupation 1945, the islands came into the hands of the United States. In 1972 though, the Okinawa Reversion Treaty was passed and the islands officially were given back to the Japanese. This is also the time that China and Taiwan began claiming ownership of the islands. Whether this was because of pure nationalism concerning these islands which had been recorded on Chinese maps since the Ming Dynasty, or opportunism since a 1969 UN survey confirmed potential oil and natural gas reserves surrounding the islands, the result is the same. Tensions have flared and the relations between the two countries have soured.

 

Violence erupted in China against Japanese people and companies when the Diaoyu crisis reared its ugly head, causing a huge response. Currently Japanese officials at Toyota, Nissan, and Honda are pacing their offices after they were forced to shut down several factories due to increasing violence on Japanese workers and Japanese companies. They are losing massive amounts of revenue, not only because of the decreased output, but because China accounts for 15% of Toyota’s profits, and 25% of Nissan’s. The tension isn’t only affecting large companies, but entire cities. Huge amounts of tourists flock to Japan each year, pouring millions of dollars to the tourism industry and huge amounts of profit to the Japanese airlines. Protests throughout China and Japan have prompted government officials to take action, including the rash ones of the right-wing mayor of Tokyo.

 

Recently, Mr. Shintaro Ishihara, the mayor of Tokyo, attempted to purchase the Senkakus from their private, Japanese owner in order to secure the islands for the Japanese people.  This prompted the government to try and buy the islands themselves, to keep them out of the hands of such an extreme politician, and risk angering China further. The meaning of this action was lost on the Chinese people though, who were immediately expressed their outrage that Japan thought they could buy the islands that were rightfully theirs. The scale of the Japanese anger over this will be decided next election when Mr. Shinzo Abe will run against incumbent Yoshihiko Noda. Mr. Abe was briefly Prime Minister from 2006 to 2007 until a member of his cabinet committed suicide and he resigned. He is now back as the candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and he has come back angry. He has been noted for not only playing down Japanese war crimes committed in World War 2 (including the controversial topic of sex-slavery of Korean women), but now has also picked up the issue of the Senkakus, giving the people exactly the nationalist, far-right China-bashing they want to hear. Mr. Abe has said that he wants to reform the Constitution, allowing Japan to actively defend their territory and exercise its naval power. Mr. Abe looks strong in the polls, and may very well win the upcoming election. With such a volatile Prime Minister for Japan, we can only hope tensions do not escalate beyond control.

 

Currently the US has stated that it has no opinion of the Diaoyu/Senkaku’s ownership, but increased military power in South-East Asia has sent the message to China that America will not let this go much further, or let China harm Japan. Such disputes may become more and more common as China keeps encroaching further into the territory of its neighboring countries. This very issue prompted the first Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit ever to fail to issue a joint communiqué. China is tearing apart Southeast Asia and soon it will come to a head. Whatever happens then, hopefully America, the world, and the world economy will be ready for the reprocussions. 

-- Isabelle Lorion